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Description: From the Preface:
In this book, Senior Fellow Arvind Subramanian extends this line of inquiry by examining the rise of China from the perspective of its impact on the world economic system. He explores this through the key concept of economic dominance, focusing on whether and how China might attain future dominance.
Subramanian anchors the analysis by adopting a historical perspective in comparing China’s future rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. He attempts to quantify and project both economic dominance and currency dominance, arguing that China’s future dominance could be more imminent, broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude than is currently imagined. The profound effect that this might have on the United States and the world financial, and especially trading, system is explored at ne length. The book concludes with a series of proposals for reconciling China’s rise with continued openness in the global economic order. Contents: Preface • Introduction • A Brief History of Economic Dominance • Systematic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance • Defining Dominance and Power • Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance • Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance • Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List • Measuring the Three Determinants • Validating Economic Dominance • Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance • Results: Economic Dominance in the past • Quantifying Currency Dominance • Definition • Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency • Short History • What Determines Reserve Currency Status? • Appendix 3A: A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status • Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity • Convergence of the Previously Poor • Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor • Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics • Results • Ceveat • Back to History: Economics Catches up with Demographics • Conclusion • Appendix 4A: Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates • Appendix 4B: Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model • Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance • Economic Dominance in the Future • The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi • The Renminbi When the Chips are Down • Conclusion • Appendix 5A: Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance • A Historical Perspective on China"s Distinctive Dominance • Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the Richest China be Dominant? • China"s Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective • Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective • Guarding Against Rash Prophesying • China"s Growth: Repeating Mistakes? • Looking Back • Realism of Trade Projections • Conclusion • Economic Cooperation with a Rising China • How many Country Grouping are there in 2011? • Historical Paralles • Prospects for Cooperation leading up to Chinese Hegemony • China as the New Raison d"Etre for Reviving Multilateralism • Limits to the Efficacy of Trade Reciprocity with a Dominant China • Alternative Approaches: Promiscuous and Hostile Bilateralism • Asian-Centered Regionalism as a Medium • Impediments to Revived Multilateralism • A "China Round" for Teaching China • Conclusion • Postscript: American Resurgent or American Vulnerable? • References • Index • Tables.ISBN - 9788130920160
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Pages : 252
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