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The principal features of this study that distinguish it from previous analyses include the following: First, this study provides unusual geographical detail. The estimates are obtained in a systematic methodology for more than 100 countries, regions, and regional subzones of the largest countries. Second, there is a direct link from the GCM estimates to highly detailed country climate change estimates. Third, this study uses a central or "consensus" climate projection approach. Many studies instead show a wide range of climate outcomes. Although for some purposes it is desirable to consider such ranges, they tend to leave the diagnosis so ill-defined that they risk policy paralysis. The experience of the past two decades shows that a wide spectrum of estimates tends to be invoked as a evidence that there is too much uncertainty to warrant action, even though in principle greater uncertainty could justify greater action if policymakers are risk averse. Fourth, this study seeks a preferred synthesis of the two main families of quantitative estimates: summary statistical "Ricardian" models and detailed crop process models. This approach permits a more balanced set of estimates than applying models from one family to the exclusion of the other.
ISBN - 9788130908960
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Pages : 216
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