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International Studies
World Economic Outlook : Rebalancing Growth
by International Monetary Fund
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Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
Recovery Is Stronger than Expected, but Speed Varies
Financial Conditions Are Easing, but Not for All Sectors
Capital Is Again Flowing to Emerging Economies
Policy Support Has Been Essential in Fostering Recovery
Multispeed Recovery to Continue during 2010–11
Infl ation Pressures Are Generally Subdued but Diverge
Important Risks Remain amid Sharply Diminished Room for Policy Maneuvers
Policies Need to Sustain and Strengthen Recovery
Global Demand Rebalancing: e Role of Credibility and Policy Coordination
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects
References
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
A Stimulus-Driven U.S. Recovery Is under Way
Asia Is Staging a Vigorous and Balanced Recovery
Europe Is Facing an Uneven Recovery and Complex Policy Challenges
The CIS Economies Are Recovering at a Moderate Pace
Latin America and the Caribbean Are Recovering at a Robust Pace
The Middle East and North Africa Region Is Recovering at a Good Pace
Africa Is Coming through the Crisis Well
Chapter 3. Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun’s Law and Beyond
Broad Labor Market Dynamics during the Great Recession
Using Okun’s Law as a Framework
Step 1: Okun’s Law across Countries and over Time
Step 2: Analyzing Unemployment Rate “Forecast Errors”
The Key Issues: Drivers of Great Recession Dynamics and Recovery Prospects
Conclusions and Implications for the Recovery
Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Construction
Appendix 3.2. Methodological Details
Appendix 3.3. Analysis on Dynamic Betas Derived from the Employment Version of Okun’s Law
Appendix 3.4. Regression Results Using Employment Forecast Errors and a Static Okun’s Law Specification
Appendix 3.5. Vector Autoregression Forecasting Methodology
References
Chapter 4. Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses
Surplus Reversals: Definition and Anatomy
Are Policy-Driven Surplus Reversals Detrimental to Growth?
Surplus Reversals: Case Studies
Lessons for Economies Considering a Transition out of External Surpluses
Appendix 4.1. Sample for Analysis and Data Sources
Appendix 4.2. Scoring Method Used to Group Economies
References
ISBN - 9788171888436
Pages : 224
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